We misjudge risk if we feel we have some
control over it, even if it's an illusory sense of control. The
article uses the example of people who drive rather than fly.
Even though the risks of death are higher driving than flying, many people
would rather drive simply because they feel they have more control driving. The
facts are that only a few hundred people die a year flying and 44,000 are killed
a year driving. After Sept. 11, 2001, many people took to the roads rather than
the skies. Not surprisingly, between October and December 2001, there were a
1,000 more deaths.
Today, many people feel they have more control if they have money in savings.
Thus the saying, "Safe as money in the bank." But the fact is that savers are
the biggest losers of all.
Between 1996 and 2006, the purchasing power of the dollar dropped by 50
percent compared to gold. In 1996, gold was approximately $275 an ounce; by 2006
it was over $600 an ounce. In 1996, oil was approximately $10 a barrel ; in 2006
it was over $60 dollars a barrel. Compare the price of real estate in your area
between the same 10 years and you'll notice that the purchasing power of your
dollar has slipped.
The point is, in spite of the facts, many people feel safer with money in the
bank because they feel they have more control over it. They don't have control
over the price of gold, oil, or real estate, so they think investing in these
assets is risky.
The Biggest Risks of All
The second point the Time article makes is that when we're afraid,
we tend to ignore the statistics and listen to our emotions. As I mentioned
above, you're over 500 times more likely to die in a car than in an airplane.
Yet cars are not the biggest of all killers.
Of the 2.5 million deaths annually in the United States, the No. 1 killer is
heart disease. In 2003, there were 685,089 deaths due to heart attack. Auto
accidents caused 44,000 deaths. Only 17,732 deaths by murder and 1 death by
shark attack occurred in the same year.
Despite these statistics, more people are afraid of sharks and murderers than
driving up to a fast food restaurant and saying, "Super-size it." French fries
kill more people than guns and sharks, yet nobody's afraid of french fries.
The same is true in the investment world. Since many people believe investing
is risky, they go for the second-riskiest investment, mutual funds. As my rich
dad used to say, "Mutual funds are like french fries. They may fill you up, but
they aren't good for you in the long run."